Valley voters often of two minds

Conservative split loudly passes Prop. 8 but is less enthusiastic on McCain.

Wednesday, Nov. 05, 2008

The central San Joaquin Valley was all over the map in Tuesday's historic election.

In many ways, it confirmed its reputation as a conservative stronghold akin to Orange County and the Inland Empire. But it also provided plenty of head-scratching results that surprised political observers.

"It's a mystery," said Michael Der Manouel Jr., a local political strategist and chairman of the Lincoln Club of Fresno County, an organization that promotes Republicans.

As expected, Valley voters went strongly for Republican presidential candidate John McCain. But in Fresno County, McCain held a razor-thin lead over his Democrat opponent, President-elect Barack Obama, and that lead could easily disappear as more provisional and absentee ballots are counted.

Also not surprisingly, Proposition 8, the state ballot initiative that would outlaw same-sex marriages, passed overwhelmingly in counties up and down the San Joaquin Valley. But McCain -- even in the strongly conservative and Republican region -- was not able to gain the support of many of those same voters.

In Tulare County, for example, 75% of voters backed Prop. 8, while 57% supported McCain. There were similar numbers in Kings and Madera counties.

"I think Prop. 8 is not hard to explain," Der Manouel said. "It's the same thing that happened statewide -- black and Hispanic voters came out for Obama and supported Prop. 8 in large numbers."

David Provost, a retired professor of political science at Fresno State who has followed presidential elections in the Valley since 1960, said part of the answer to the Valley's mixed bag is obvious: "The economy is in such bad shape. The economy is one thing, social issues are another. It caused people to split their ballot [between Obama and support of Prop. 8]."

Another result that confounded political watchers was Proposition 11, which would take away lawmakers' power to draw the state legislative district boundaries and instead give that authority to a bipartisan panel.

It passed in Fresno and Madera counties, but not in strongly Republican Tulare or Kings counties -- even though critics suggested it was a Republican Party power grab.

Valley voters also agreed to more spending in the form of bond and other spending proposals, but it wasn't always a sweeping approval, especially with Proposition 1A, the high-speed rail bond.

The initiative won approval in Kern, Fresno and Merced counties but was rejected in Tulare, Kings, Madera and Mariposa counties.

Political watchers noted that high-speed rail stops are slated in the three counties that supported the bond but not in the areas that rejected it.

Clovis resident Fran Blackney, business advocate for the city's chamber of commerce, thought it strange that Fresno County voters said "no" to Propositions 7 and 10, but "yes" to Prop. 1A, which will cost more than the other two combined.

Prop. 7, which failed, would have required the state's utilities to generate half their electricity from windmills, solar systems, geothermal reserves and other renewable sources by 2025. Proposition 10, which also failed, would have given Californians who buy alternative-fuel vehicles up to $50,000 in rebates through a $5 billion bond measure.

Like others, Blackney was baffled by the response of the Valley as a whole.

"We're like schizophrenic," she said. "Go figure."

Political observers think Valley residents might have been overwhelmed by the ballot's sheer size: president, Congress and state Assembly, 12 state propositions, city councils, school boards and special districts, a Fresno County library tax and in Fresno, a new mayor for the first time in eight years.

Along with that hefty ballot came loads of television and radio ads, as well as mail pieces delivered to local households.

Said Der Manouel: "People are bombarded so bad, they don't even know what they're doing in [the voting booth]."