This year, weather system is La Nada

Meteorologists: Unpredictible storm system may leave state facing another dry year.

Sunday, Nov. 02, 2008

Forecasters are flipping a coin when asked whether California will endure a third dry year in a row. Maybe yes, maybe no.

Meteorologists can't bet one way or the other this year because there is no warm-water El Niño or cold-water La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño can mean more rain; La Niña can mean less.

This year, the ocean is La Nada -- the unofficial term that means the ocean's water temperature is normal, offering no clues for forecasters and little encouragement for farmers or reservoir operators.

"I have yet to see a long-range forecast that I would put money on," said meteorologist and consultant Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather Services, based in Saratoga.

Uncertainty is the last thing San Joaquin Valley farmers and reservoir operators want to hear. Reservoirs already are down to about 60% of average for this time of year. The reserve in storage is dwindling with each dry year.

The rainfall season of 2006-07 was 59% of average, and the following year was about 73%, according to state records.

Farm and water officials say next summer will be ugly without at least average precipitation this winter. Crop fields will go out of production, adding millions of dollars in losses and unemployment to a bleak state economy.

There is one climate hint called the Madden/Julian Oscillation -- a powerful tropical wave of wind that circles the globe in 30 to 60 days.

The wave is occurring right now and helped bring the first significant rain and snow to the state this weekend.

Sometimes the wave also sets up a pineapple express, blowing a steady stream of storms thousands of miles across the Pacific into California. The storms this weekend could signal the start of a wet November.

But forecasting this wave is a longshot compared to El Niño and La Niña. The phenomenon is not well understood. Government scientists won't use it in predicting this winter's precipitation.

"We have no idea if it will continue through the winter," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in Maryland.

Farmer Dan Errotabere, who is a board member for Westlands Water District, is preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

Errotabere farms about 5,600 acres around Riverdale, Five Points and Huron. He buys Northern California river water from the federal Central Valley Project and uses deep-well pumps on his land. He's planting 30% to 40% less acreage this year, anticipating less irrigation water.

Errotabere places his highest priority on preserving his almond trees, a long-term investment. He cuts back on his annual planting of row crops, such as tomatoes. He said he will plant additional acreage if there is a lot of precipitation.

But, as a Westlands farmer, he also must contend with federal water cutbacks for endangered fish species. He might only get 50% of his federal allotment, even if there is a wet winter.

"It's a big crapshoot," Errotabere said. "I don't want to walk away from a crop next summer because I didn't get enough water. So I play a pretty conservative hand."

Reservoir operators share his anxiety. Ted Selb, deputy general manager at the Merced Irrigation District, said Lake McClure, the agency's primary reservoir, is short by almost 200,000 acre-feet of water at this point this year.

Each acre-foot -- 325,851 gallons or a year's supply for an average family in the Valley -- is precious, he said. The district spent $2.3 million pumping 100,000 acre-feet from its own wells last year to supplement farm supplies.