Diving economy could doom Fresno Co., state bond measures

Monday, Oct. 27, 2008

Voters are worried about the economy -- and that could doom spending proposals on the Nov. 4 ballot, experts say.

Californians will decide whether to authorize $16.8 billion in bonds for high-speed rail, children's hospitals, alternative energy and veterans' housing.

Fresno County residents also will decide whether to double the sales tax for library improvements to 25 cents for every $100 purchase.

Supporters of the state and county proposals are trying to overcome voter anxiety about the economy. They talk about job creation and other financial benefits or try to minimize the costs to voters.

Opponents of the measures say voters can't afford more government in tight times. They hold up the measures as examples of runaway spending in Sacramento.

Opposition arguments will likely prove successful because people tend to vote their pocketbooks, experts say.

"Historically, voters have shown a resistance to bonds during poor economic times," said Rod Kiewiet, a professor of political science at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

The author of a book about economics and elections, Kiewiet said the dynamic was dramatically displayed in the early 1990s.

From 1990 to 1992 -- when the "California economy went through a steep and painful recession," according to the state Legislative Analyst's Office -- voters defeated 11 statewide bond measures and approved three.

Last month, 47% of voters supported the children's hospital proposal, but 18% were still undecided, according to The Field Poll. In July, the same organization found 56% of voters supported the rail proposal, but 14% were undecided. But those polls were completed before the recent plunge in the stock market and other bad economic news.

Anna Gregory, an 18-year-old student at Fresno Pacific University, will vote for the first time in November. She's still weighing her options on the bond proposals.

"I feel like our actions will have more consequences than if the economy was going fine," she said. "It's a very important election."

Heather Todish, a teacher at Carter G. Woodson Public Charter School in Fresno, said she's going to be hard-pressed to support the bond proposals.

"It's scary right now," she said. "My family isn't taking out any credit now, so I'm not inclined to support the government using credit, either."

As a schoolteacher, though, she feels a duty to support Measure L, the proposed library sales tax. The sales tax is expected to raise $28 million a year to improve services at 32 sites and build 16 new branches.

Measure L Chairwoman Deborah Ikeda said supporting libraries in bad economic times makes sense. Residents use libraries more in tough times because they provide free services, including job assistance.

But former Fresno County Supervisor Doug Vagim said officials shouldn't have asked voters to approve the sales tax increase in a weak economy.

Supervisors Henry R. Perea and Bob Waterston expressed the same reservations in July, but agreed to put the measure on the ballot when the three other supervisors on the board indicated they were going to do so.

"The people are seeing more and more costs laid on them," Vagim said. "When is government going to calm down?"

Economic uncertainty will also work against the four statewide bond measures, said Mark Baldassare, president and chief executive officer of the Public Policy Institute of California.

"We are in history-making times in terms of concerns about the economy, credit and the state budget," he said. "People are nervous about spending."