Perea unable to build on support from June primary

Published online on Thursday, Nov. 06, 2008

After the June primary, Fresno City Council Member Henry T. Perea led the race to become the city's next mayor.

But he didn't have much of a cushion. Just 216 votes separated Perea from runner-up Ashley Swearengin -- setting up an expensive, winner-take-all election that she won Tuesday with 55% of the vote.

So what went wrong for Perea?

Neither Perea nor his communications director returned telephone calls Wednesday. But local political experts and others said Perea never had much of an edge in the race -- if he ever had one at all.

The conservative bent of Fresno voters, strong similarities between the two candidates, bigger voter turnout and the perception of negative campaigning probably dimmed Perea's chances, they said.

In addition, a seat on the City Council hasn't been a springboard to the Mayor's Office. Fresno's last two mayors, Alan Autry and Jim Patterson, came from outside the ranks of council members.

"Name recognition alone isn't going to do it in the mayor's race," said Jeffrey Cummins, an assistant professor of political science at Fresno State.

Longtime political analyst Don Larson, who endorsed Swearengin, said he always believed she would win. Larson figured Swearengin would inherit most of the votes that went to the other nine candidates in June and that she would benefit from bigger voter turnout in November.

In addition, Larson said, some political mailers -- sent out on Perea's behalf by the Fresno County Democratic Central Committee -- labeled Perea as the Democratic candidate in the election. That may not have helped.

"It's a nonpartisan race -- and I think it's wise to keep it that way," Larson said.

In Fresno, there are about 8,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. But Cummins said the electorate still is more likely to tilt toward a Republican candidate in a nonpartisan office.

Swearengin also performed better in debates and seemed like the stronger candidate, he said. "She ran a better campaign."

An increasingly negative tone by Perea supporters also may have hurt. Said Cummins: "That usually indicates the polls are showing he's far behind and he has to give the electorate a reason not to support her. That tactic doesn't always work that well."

Joel Murillo, chairman of the county Democratic Central Committee, said Perea probably was damaged by Lincoln Club campaigning and endorsements of Swearengin by Autry and state Assembly Member Juan Arambula, a Democrat.

Perea had support from union interests, including the Fresno Police Officers Association, and the Greater Fresno Area Chamber of Commerce.

Jacky Parks, president of the police officers association, said the idea of change -- a central theme of Barack Obama's campaign -- may have filtered into the mayor's race. Obama pulled nearly as many votes in Fresno County as Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

"If there was that connection here locally, as it seems there was nationally, she capitalized on that very well," Parks said.

Al Smith, the chamber's executive director, said voter turnout in the north helped Swearengin. A Bee analysis showed that Swearengin performed strongest in the north, generally considered a more conservative part of the city.

Smith also said voters probably didn't see many big differences in the platforms of the two candidates. The chamber endorsed Perea because of his proven track record.

"It was never good vs. bad -- it was good vs. better," Smith said.