Democratic challenger Cox gives Radanovich a real fight at last

Published online on Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2006

George Radanovich may have a race, for once.

The Mariposa Republican has politically coasted since his first election to Congress in 1994.

One opponent hired a live monkey in a desperate bid for media attention. Another was a marijuana activist. Democrats didn't even show up in 1998, leaving a Libertarian Party candidate as Radanovich's sole challenger.

Now, although the 51-year-old Radanovich still holds numerous advantages, he's getting a run for his money from Democrat T.J. Cox.

"This is the first opponent I've had in a long time who is putting a real effort into the race," Radanovich said, "so that's different."

A 43-year-old businessman making his first run for Congress, Cox starts with at least a rudimentary campaign war chest.

Through June, Cox reported having raised $363,297. Roughly $300,000 came from loans he made to his own campaign. By contrast, Radanovich's 2004 Democratic opponent spent a grand total of $720.

Radanovich reported raising $789,299 through June and had $255,000 stashed away in available cash. Unlike Cox, he does not have any lingering campaign debt. Radanovich also has the advantages of incumbency — as San Joaquin Valley constituents saw this August, when they received congressionally franked mail from Radanovich's office.

From Capitol Hill, Radanovich and his staff are clearly becoming more aggressive. Opposition research is stockpiled, and fundraisers are being held.

If Radanovich wins this year, he knows his margin of victory will help determine what kind of challenge he will face in 2008.

"I do enjoy campaigning," Radanovich said. "It is invigorating."

By the numbers, Republicans have a lock on the 19th Congressional District that includes portions of Stanislaus, Madera and Fresno counties as well as all of Tuolumne and Mariposa counties.

Nearly 47% of the district's voters are registered Republican, compared to 36% who are Democrats.

The disparity is one reason why neither the Republican nor Democratic campaign committees have targeted the race for special attention.

That hurts Cox, who needs the help.

"There's no doubt that the registration numbers are against us," Cox said, "but they are not as bad as they appear."

Cox contends that voters who "decline to state" a political party — nearly 13% of district voters — do not know who represents them.

He cites, as well, some prominent local Republicans who have contributed to his campaign, such as businessmen Bob Smittcamp and Fresno Unified School District Chief Financial Officer Ruth Quinto.

"Ask them if they want someone who can make a difference, and they say yes," Cox said.

Still, Cox would need just about all of those "decline to state" votes, plus a high Democratic Party turnout, to challenge Radanovich. No previous Radanovich opponent has received more than 32% of the district's vote.

Like many Democrats across the nation, Cox is critical of the Iraq war effort but hesitant to say troops should be pulled out.

"What we need is a plan," he said. "We're pouring money down a sinkhole."

Radanovich, though, said that he has found his constituents "are generally saying 'stay the course'" in Iraq.

He called it "a bold stroke by the president to go into Iraq" in order to "establish a beachhead of democracy," even though he expects Americans could remain in Iraq for 30 to 50 years.

More broadly, Cox said his opponent has been ineffectual in Washington and absent from the district.

Radanovich has long since backed away from his initial 1994 pledge to serve only six years.

"This is a referendum on the incumbent and whether he's kept his promise," Cox said. "By any measure, he has not."

In response, Radanovich's campaign has produced a long list of congressional accomplishments. They include work on a recent San Joaquin River settlement, work on improving Highway 99 and funding the new federal courthouse in downtown Fresno.