Mail-in ballots expand election

Campaigns now target absentee voters who make choices early.

Published online on Tuesday, Oct. 31, 2006

Cal Minor's face began popping up on television screens in Fresno County on Oct. 6.

His campaign planner says they were targeting the new breed of voter.

Four days later, absentee ballots were sent to county residents who requested to vote by mail. Minor's campaign wanted viewers to see his television advertisement a few times before the ballots arrived.

"So people would know who Cal Minor was and what he stands for by the time they got their absentee ballots," said Tim Orman, consultant for the candidate for Fresno County sheriff.

The landscape of political campaigns is changing. And voters have mail-in ballots to thank for that. Years ago, before absentee voting went mainstream, politicians tailored their campaigns to peak in the week or so before Election Day. Now, with ballots mailed 29 days earlier, candidates have to reach voters much sooner — and still finish their campaigns with a bang.

Absentee voting in California could reach a milestone with the Nov. 7 election: The majority of voters might do so without going to the polls. In the June primary, nearly 47% of California voters cast absentee ballots, and the Secretary of State's Office expects a higher percentage this time around.

In Fresno County, the absentee turnout in June was 57.3% of the 105,645 who voted.

Today is the last day to request an absentee ballot for the Nov. 7 election.

"Now," Orman said, "you have to peak your campaign twice. You have to peak it 30 days before when they mail out the absentees, then you have to maintain it for the next three weeks. And then you have to peak again in the last week."

Political experts say campaigns that once lasted two months, beginning around Labor Day, have grown by another month and start in August.

Fresno City Council candidate Scott Miller is one of those who arranged for a mailer to arrive at homes about the same time as absentee ballots.

"We were just trying to time our message to reach our absentees," Miller said.

John Crockford, a Peace and Freedom Party candidate from Clovis who is running for state Assembly, hasn't raised enough cash to go after absentee voters. But, Crockford said, "If I did have the money, that would be one of the things I would spend it on."

Wiley Nickel of Dos Palos is trying to oust Republican incumbent Jeff Denham of Merced from a state Senate seat. He, too, timed a portion of his campaign around the arrival of absentee ballots.

Because a large percentage of the elderly vote by mail, Nickel said, he made several trips to retirement communities in the Merced and Modesto areas to let them know he supports lowering prescription drug costs.

Candidates also no longer save their sharpest attacks for the last minute.

"Nowadays you can't hold those silver bullets in reserve," said state Democratic Party spokesman Roger Salazar. "You've gotta start firing them earlier and earlier."

Most candidates start their campaigns on a positive note, introducing themselves and their families, said David Schecter, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno. Then they try to "destroy" their opponents in the middle stretch before returning to an upbeat tone, he said.

"It used to be that 10 days out, you go positive with your final message. That's now at three weeks out," said Schecter, adding that the negative attacks are ending sooner "because you don't want to leave that bad flavor in your mouth."

Early voting creates the possibility that people may cast their votes before potentially decision-changing information surfaces.

Case in point: George W. Bush's 24-year-old conviction for drunken driving revealed six days before the 2000 presidential election.

But Schecter says those revelations are few and far between, and that the benefits of absentee voting — increased voter turnout — outweigh any drawbacks.

"I feel that that may make people regret their vote, but in the big scheme of things, that's a rare event," he said.

County elections offices help candidates target absentee voters who have not yet mailed in their ballots. The information is public record.

"Those campaigns repeatedly ask for the data as for who has returned their absentee ballots," Fresno County Clerk Victor Salazar said.

For $33, people in Fresno County can buy a computer disc that includes the names and addresses of the holdout voters.

A similar list costs $95 in Kings County.

But candidates should save a stash of cash for last-minute ads, Schecter said: Studies show that as many as 9% of voters haven't decided who they're voting for until Election Day.