WHEN FRESNO STATE RUNS
New Mexico State's run defense is 113th in the nation, allowing 220.7 yards per game. But Bulldogs running back Lonyae Miller is still not 100% and Fresno State's offensive line has taken another hit. Left guard Devan Cunningham will not play today, coach Pat Hill said, and left tackle Bobby Lepori may not be 100% after rolling his ankle last week.
ADVANTAGE: NEW MEXICO STATE
WHEN NEW MEXICO STATE RUNS
The Aggies have been troubled by injuries at offensive line and running back, but they say they've found a line combination they like and original starter Marquell Colston returned last week. Still, New Mexico State rushed for a grand total of 6 yards vs. Hawaii last week. Slowed by injury or not, the 'Dogs should halt this run attack.
ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE
WHEN FRESNO STATE PASSES
New Mexico State is atop the WAC, statistically, in pass defense at 163 yards per game, but allowed 288 yards and two touchdowns to Hawaii's Greg Alexander. Fresno State quarterback Tom Brandstater and receiver Seyi Ajirotutu have continued to click. Brandstater threw for 260 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions last week.
ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE
WHEN NEW MEXICO STATE PASSES
New Mexico State's passing game is its strength. Quarterback Chase Holbrook leads a spread offense and a passing game ranked first in the WAC and ninth in the nation, tallying 308 yards per game. Receiver Chris Williams is one of the best in the conference, if not the nation. He has more than 1,000 yards receiving and seven touchdowns.
ADVANTAGE: NEW MEXICO STATE
WHEN FRESNO STATE KICKS
New Mexico State is among the nation's best in punt return average (16.7 yards), but the Aggies have returned only nine this season. Bulldogs punter Robert Malone has been stellar and kicker Kevin Goessling has steadily improved. Helping the Bulldogs is the Aggies' kickoff return -- New Mexico State is tied for 93rd at 20 yards per attempt.
ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE
WHEN NEW MEXICO STATE KICKS
Fresno State's A.J. Jefferson showed why he's one of the best returners in the nation last week, taking a kickoff 92 yards for a touchdown. Mix him with Rashad Evans, who returned a punt for a TD against Louisiana Tech, and opposing teams are in some trouble. Aggies kicker Kyle Hughes is 5 of 9 on field goals with a long of 44.
ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE
INTANGIBLES
At 3-6, the chances of New Mexico State actually making it to a bowl game are weak. The Aggies are more playing the spoiler role at this point than anything. Fresno State, meanwhile, has senior day today and is capable of going at least 7-5 in the regular season and putting a happy face on an otherwise disappointing season.
ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE
KEY MATCHUPS
Both teams vs. injuries
Injuries have decimated both teams. The Aggies have lost eight starters on offense and more on defense while the Bulldogs have lost several players themselves. The team that can get more from its walking wounded will have the advantage.
Bulldogs' secondary vs. Aggies' WR Chris Williams
New Mexico State's dagger is its passing attack, triggered by quarterback Chase Holbrook. Williams has 65 catches, 1,009 yards and seven touchdowns this season and provides a major spark for the Aggies' offense.
Aggies' offensive line vs. Bulldogs' defensive line
The Bulldogs can't allow the Aggies to form a run game that complements its passing game. Both lines have been decimated, but with Fresno State unable to stop the run, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Aggies try to establish a ground attack.
KEYS TO VICTORY
New Mexico State wins if ...
It holds Fresno State to less than 100 yards rushing. Stopping the run is the Aggies' defensive weakness, so to accomplish that feat would be a plus. It also would mean the Fresno State offense is one-dimensional once again.
Three Aggies other than receiver Chris Williams score touchdowns.
Fresno State wins if ...
It rushes for more than 200 yards. The Bulldogs have struggled to run the ball in recent games. An improvement here would open the pass game.
It doesn't turn the ball over. The Bulldogs turned it over four times last week. The Bulldogs' defense relies on the offense to take care of the ball and win the time of possession battle.
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