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Subscribe to PrintBy Mark Grossi / The Fresno Bee
Everyone agrees the Valley's air is getting cleaner. But is the local smog district exaggerating the improvement? Nothing points out the question better than a squabble over one number -- 82% -- on a San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District Web posting. [Hear audio of the district's executive director]That's how much ozone violations declined between 1990 and 2005, the air district says.The number, however, is based on an abolished legal standard. Using the current ozone standard, the Valley's violations dropped 30% from 1990 to 2005."People should know there is still an air crisis out there," said Sarah Jackson, a researcher for a nonprofit legal watchdog, Earthjustice, in Oakland. "That 82% reduction is bogus."The number is in a report originally titled "Air Quality Report Card: A+." Officials say they are using the number to help get millions of state and federal dollars for air cleanup.The report was a way to show public officials that the district's work on the old standard had paid dividends. After hearing criticism, the district changed the title to "Air Quality Progress Report 1995 to 2005."But the 82% reduction statistic remained. Activists said the number should be eliminated or changed to 30% to reflect that the Valley still has a long way to go.Neither statistic makes much sense to retired math professor Gordon Nipp, a Kern County resident and Sierra Club member who has been active in air quality issues. Nipp analyzed the numbers after being contacted by The Bee.He contends the district's approach amounts to cherry-picking numbers to draw a pre-determined conclusion."It's fallacious reasoning," he said. "If you looked instead at the state standard, you could pick two different years, and you'd find things have actually gotten worse."The air district does not back away from the 82% claim, saying it shows progress during a key time in the air district's history.Officials bolster their case with another dramatic number over a longer period of time: About 80% of smog-making emissions from Valley businesses were eliminated between 1980 and 2005.Air board Executive Director Seyed Sadredin said the reduction shows the hard work of local businesses, which have invested $42.5 billion in Valley air quality since 1980.But a proper statistical analysis would include many types of ozone measurement before reaching bold conclusions, said Jan de Leeuw, a professor of statistics at UCLA and also a Sierra Club member.At Nipp's request, de Leeuw analyzed violations and ozone concentrations from several south Valley air monitors. He said he found improvements of about 20% for the 15 years following 1990.When Sadredin learned of the professors' analysis, he arranged a meeting in August in Bakersfield to explain the statistic.At the meeting, he and other district officials said there is more to air quality trends than the violation totals and concentration levels that de Leeuw analyzed.The district analyzes thousands of individual monitor readings, which are too numerous and cumbersome to describe to the public, he said.Years of these readings show that the Valley smog season is getting shorter, said air district planning director Scott Nester. Fewer violations now occur in April and October, compared to five or six years ago.Cool spells this past summer may have helped hold down the number of bad days. The violation total is a record low of 65 days.Nipp said he agrees there has been progress. He congratulates the district."I think that's amazing, given the sprawl and growth," he said."But if you tell Valley residents the air is 82% better based on fallacious reasoning, then they're going to say, 'Why do we have to go to all these extremes to make the air better? Why can't we just do business as usual?' "