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Tuesday ballot inspires apathy

Budget measures unlikely to rally pessimistic voters.

Published online on Saturday, May. 16, 2009

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SACRAMENTO -- Pessimistic and dissatisfied with state leaders, California voters will head to the polls Tuesday to take up several state budget measures that those same leaders crafted.

Last November seems a lifetime away, when an enthused electorate turned out in record numbers to elect Barack Obama president and weigh in on several high-profile propositions, including approving a ban on same-sex marriage.

It's no surprise, then, that far fewer voters are tuned into Tuesday's special election. Esoteric phrases like "budget stabilization account" and "temporary reallocation" are the operative language now, rather than the simple "change" anthem that carried the day last fall.

"I just don't see any driving force that's going to bring out the voters," said Fresno County Clerk Victor Salazar "I think there's just a great deal of voter dissatisfaction ... of what's going on in Sacramento."

Salazar projects turnout in the county of 25% of registered voters, compared with 72% last November. In Tulare County, elections officials expect 20% of voters to show up, down from 73%. But there's plenty at stake for sure -- billions of dollars.

Propositions 1A-1E would complete a budget compromise approved by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and lawmakers in February.

The measures would extend temporary tax hikes for one to two years, restrict spending in future years, give more money to schools and borrow from the state lottery and special programs. Voters also will consider Proposition 1F, which would ban pay raises for state lawmakers during years in which the state ends the year in a deficit.

The 2009-10 budget will be shaped by the fate of Prop. 1C, which would borrow $5 billion against future state lottery profits for next year's general fund. Another $838 million would come from Props. 1D and 1E, which would reallocate to the general fund money now dedicated to early childhood and mental health programs.

If the three measures fail, the state faces a $21.3 billion budget hole through June of 2010. If they pass, the gap narrows to $15.4 billion, according to projections by the Schwarzenegger administration.

The governor, who has campaigned hard for the propositions, has framed the choice as budget cuts versus even more budget cuts. His revised budget plan released Thursday calls for slashing $6 billion from programs if the measures pass. If they fail, he'd seek $3.4 billion in additional cuts, he said.

"I think it's important that we let the people know exactly what kind of tough decisions are to be made in the future," he said. Voters should "know the choices that are available."

The plea may come too late to reach many residents who have already voted. In Fresno County, 49,001 voters have cast ballots by mail and in Tulare County, 15,690 ballots are in, elections officials said.

The 'No' campaign has been led by an unlikely coalition. Conservatives abhor the tax hikes that Prop. 1A would extend -- and have made the t-word their main message. Some liberal groups, meanwhile, don't like the spending restrictions and rainy day fund in the measure.

In the Valley, the divide is sharp.

"It's crazy," said Tony Capozzi, a political analyst in Fresno. "Generally you know which groups are going to go where. Now it's all over the place."

Some traditionally Republican farm and business groups are behind most of the propositions, saying if they pass the state can focus on other issues such as water and transportation infrastructure. But the Fresno Republican Party and other GOP activists have campaigned against the measures, mostly because of the taxes.


The reporter can be reached at eschultz@fresnobee.com or (916) 326-5541.

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