Cutting Breeders' Cup picks down to size

Published online on Wednesday, Nov. 04, 2009

While the Kentucky Derby is the 'most exciting two-minutes in sports', the two-day Breeders' Cup races are the most important days in racing.

This year the Breeders' Cup is again being held at Santa Anita Park just like last year. Santa Anita has a synthetic main track which has forced the owners of top thoroughbred Rachel Alexandra to put her on the shelf until 2010.

However, just about every other star racehorse in North America and many from Europe will be competing Friday and Saturday. Most prominent is Zenyatta, winner of last year's Ladies' Classic.

Zenyatta will not be starting in the Ladies' Classic this year, her connections have entered her in the $5 million Classic on Saturday. Her owners and trainer John Shirreffs are thinking a win against male thoroughbreds in the sport's ultimate race will make the mare Horse of the Year over Rachel Alexandra.

My selection for the Classic later.

Over the years I have whittled down the number of Breeders' Cup races I wager on to a manageable number. No betting on two-year-old races is the primary rule. If I don't like any horse in a given race I skip it.

For the 26th Breeders' Cup I have eliminated, along with the juvenile races, the $500,000 Marathon which starts things off on Friday. The Marathon will be run at 1 3/4 miles, an unusual distance on the main track in this country.

Friday's bets will be on the Filly & Mare Sprint, Filly & Mare Turf and the Ladies' Classic.

The Sprint and the Turf are no brainers for me. Trainer Jonathan Sheppard, one of my most liked trainers, has a horse in each event and should walk away with two victories.

For the seven-furlong Sprint, Informed Decision is the pick over favored Ventura. Informed Decision has won five of six starts this year, taking all four races that were run on artificial surfaces. In April she defeated Ventura by a head in the lone meeting this year between the two,

Forever Together, stablemate of Informed Decision, is back to defend her crown in the 1 1/4 mile Filly & Mare Turf. I had her last year when she won at odds of 9-2 and there's no reason to get off her this time. She is the 5-2 morning- line favorite in the eight horse field. Forever Together is a late running horse who likes a firm turf course, which she should get on Friday. Jockey Julien Leparoux, who will also ride Informed Decision, will have the gray mare sitting off the pace until the turn for home. The distance is perfect for the five-year-old to pick up a second straight Breeders' Cup victory.

Friday concludes with the $2 million Ladies' Classic at 1 1/8 miles. Music Note is the 9-5 favorite and Careless Jewel is next at 2-1. Music Note was third in last year's race behind Zenyatta and Cocoa Beach. Cocoa Beach is 8-1 this year in the program.

The choice for the Ladies' Classic is three-year-old filly Careless Jewel. In this, her first year of racing, Careless Jewel has won five straight since finishing third in her debut. Based at Woodbine in Toronto, Careless Jewel has emerged as the second best three-year-old filly behind Rachel Alexandra. Her last four wins have been by a total of 29-lengths, including an 11-length win in the Alabama.

"You're never crazy about the one-hole," said the filly's trainer Josie Carroll, "but she won out of there in her last race (the Cotillion at Philadelphia Park) and did so in such impressive fashion. As for being the (2-1) favorite, I don't know what to say. It's going to be a very tough race."

Saturday has eight races, but two are for juveniles. That leaves six possible betting chances.