Conspiracy theorists opposed to Mayor Ashley Swearengin's attempt to outsource Fresno's residential garbage collection will jump with glee today when it is announced that the city is projected to end the 2013 fiscal year with only a $1.3 million budget deficit.

Then the city's public employee union leaders undoubtedly will join with the conspiracy theorists to claim that because the deficit isn't as big as projected, the mayor's numbers can't be trusted. And, from there, everyone opposed to privatizing trash service and union concessions will say with a straight face that Fresno not only isn't on the verge of bankruptcy, but City Hall can easily afford the status quo.

But an examination of the city's financial condition -- as well as the reasons for the improved bottom line -- reveals that City Hall can't stay afloat without the franchise fee revenue from trash collection and future concessions from its fire and police bargaining units.

How did City Hall whittle down the previously estimated $5 million deficit?

Revenue is up nearly $3 million, largely because sales taxes are about $2.5 million more than was anticipated.

The other big factor is attrition in the Fresno Police Department. The mayor budgeted for and the City Council approved 748 police officers. It is ending the fiscal year with 717 -- not nearly enough to properly protect a large urban city fighting a multigenerational gang problem.

Even with the better-than-anticipated news on the budget, the city must borrow $1.1 million and cut $200,000 more in salaries to square the fiscal-year ledger. Meanwhile, the city faces a 25% hike in employee health-and-benefits costs for the coming year.

Today, the City Council will either repeal the previously approved trash outsourcing contract or let voters choose who collects their garbage. Given that outsourcing opponents haven't offered money-saving or money-generating alternatives to privatizing, it would be reckless and irresponsible for the council to repeal the contract.

This decision is best answered by voters. If an election is held, we recommend that they study the city's financial condition before marking their ballots and vote soberly, rather than relying on emotion.