Two years ago, Democratic Rep. Jim Costa escaped with a razor-thin win in his bid for a fourth term in Congress.
This time around, the three Republicans seeking to oust him say he's just as vulnerable, but Costa appears determined not to let history repeat itself.
On the surface, at least, the odds seem to favor Costa, who is running in a new district that includes almost half of Fresno, parts of Fresno and Madera counties and all of Merced County.
Almost a quarter of Costa's old 20th Congressional District is in the new 16th Congressional District -- and it's a heavily Democratic part.
Democrats have a 14-percentage-point registration advantage over Republicans in the district, according to the Secretary of State.
"I think it's going well," Costa said of his campaign. "We are developing the broad base of bipartisan support that I've enjoyed in years past."
The three Republican challengers are Stanislaus County businessman Mark Garcia, 41, Fresno County dairyman Johnny Tacherra, 36, and Fresno attorney Brian Whelan, 28. The other candidate in the race is a Democrat -- Madera doctor Loraine Goodwin, 64.
The top two finishers in the June primary will advance to a November general election showdown.
Niche issues
All three Republicans agree that Costa, 60, will be one of the two who will advance. So while their positions on issues often take aim at him, they are also quick to point out how they are superior to each other.
For instance, on immigration, all three talk about a guest-worker program, but Garcia takes a harder line, saying everyone in the nation illegally must return to their home county and reapply to immigrate.
Whelan thinks that is too harsh, especially if children born in the U.S. are left behind while their parents are forced to leave and then seek to return legally.
"I don't believe that's American," he said.
Tacherra said those who want to apply for the guest-worker program and are already in the country illegally -- and haven't committed a crime -- should be able to do so without returning home. These people should have a route to citizenship, but only through proper legal channels.
Not surprisingly, all three are opposed to the state's proposed high-speed rail project, which Costa has championed since his days as a state legislator.
"We have more important things to address," Garcia said.
Each also seems to have a niche issue.
For Tacherra, it is the dairy industry -- something he knows well.
Last year, Tacherra said, he visited Costa's office while on a lobbying trip for the California Dairy Campaign. He wanted to talk about the high number of dairies closing in the state.
Although Costa gave him a hearing, Tacherra felt Costa was deaf to the industry's concerns. "I realized all he is worried about is his election. He's not worried about what is going on on the farms."
For Tacherra -- who said he considers Costa a friend -- it was the final straw. He decided to run for the seat.
Whelan talks a lot about tariff reform. He said the nation's tariff code includes protectionist policies that hurt the Valley.
Garcia's pet issue is regulation and taxation that have hurt small business owners -- including his bail bonds business, which used to have offices from San Diego the Bay Area but has cut back significantly.
Rural versus city
Whelan has been touting that he's the only Republican who lives in the district. Both Tacherra and Garcia acknowledge it but say there's more to representing a district than simply living in it.
Both Tacherra and Garcia portray Whelan as a city-living attorney.
Tacherra talks of the district's agricultural heart and his dairy background. Garcia says he grew up in Fresno County and later planted a vineyard and founded the Most Wanted Wine Company.
Whelan said he's not all city. His legal specialty is agricultural law, and he also pursues winemaking as a hobby, he said.
Garcia has a few problems in his background.
For one, though he lives in the Stanislaus County town of Oakdale, he lists a rural Fresno County address near Biola with the Secretary of State's office. Garcia said that is his cousin's house and the place he hopes to eventually establish as his campaign headquarters.
Garcia also has some enforcement actions against his bail bond agent's license, which he attributed to criminal charges filed against him more than two decades ago.
At age 18, he said, he was charged with receiving stolen property after stolen hubcaps were placed on the trunk of his car. He didn't do it and didn't know they were stolen, he said.
A few years later, after he was married and had a child, his car was impounded because of a cracked windshield. After Garcia informed his wife, she told him to retrieve baby formula from the trunk. The end result was an obstructing justice charge.
Garcia said he was one of six boys in his family, was rowdy as a youth and did things he was not proud of. But he said he long ago became a changed person.
The money chase
Among the Republicans, Whelan claims front-runner status -- even though all candidates will appear together on the ballot -- and the way Garcia and Tacherra react to him seems to validate that claim.
In the first quarter of this year, Whelan raised $116,000 and loaned himself $24,680. He has $106,000 cash on hand.
Garcia raised $12,700 and loaned himself $10,000. He has a little more than $23,000 cash on hand, but also has more than $10,000 in unpaid bills.
Tacherra raised $28,500 and loaned himself $1,000. He has $7,000 cash on hand, but more than that in unpaid bills.
Goodwin raised $19 and has given her campaign $2,000.
Costa, by comparison, raised $735,000 in the first quarter of this year and has around $400,000 in cash on hand. He said he intends to raise more than $1 million ahead of the November general election.
Whelan also has caught the attention of the National Republican Congressional Committee, which has dubbed him "on the radar," which Republicans say shows a candidate has the "ability to meet crucial campaign benchmarks" that show he is viable.
Then again, Whelan is one of 79 who are on the radar. Only 17 have been given the higher-level "contender" tag.
And, though Republicans tried very hard to recruit what they considered a "top-tier" candidate, none of those who were recruited accepted the challenge. The list included former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson, Merced County Sheriff Mark Pazin and Clovis businessman Case Lawrence.
Goodwin, the lone Democrat challenging Costa, did not return phone calls seeking comment.
She has twice unsuccessfully run for Congress, including 2010, when she lost to Republican Jeff Denham, R-Turlock, in the 19th Congressional District.
This year, Goodwin is running simultaneously for the 16th Congressional seat and the Madera County Board of Supervisors.
Costa cautious
Costa maintains cautious optimism.
He touts what he feels is real-world work that includes several major Valley advances.
Among them are a project linking the San Luis Canal with the California Aqueduct that became operational in January, which will provide an additional 60,000 acre-feet of water to the Valley's west side.
"It's years of working together; it's why I have such broad-based support," he said.
Still, Costa knows what happened two years ago, when Hanford Republican Andy Vidak came out of nowhere to nearly beat him.
It was the advent of the mega-political action committees known as "Super PACs" that Costa said changed the equation, allowing Vidak -- a political novice with "little background or experience and not much ability to raise dollars" -- to suddenly become viable.
As it happened two years ago, Costa said it could happen again this year.
"This race is really not on the priority ranking for the Republicans at this time, and hopefully it will remain that way," Costa said.
16th Congressional District candidates
Jim Costa
Age: 60Hometown: Fresno
Occupation: Farmer, U.S. representative
Education: Bachelor's degree, political science, Fresno State
Family: Single
Party preference: Democrat
Web: www.jimcosta.com/
Mark Garcia
Age: 41Hometown: Oakdale
Occupation: Bail bondsman
Education: Modesto Junior College
Family: Wife Angela; four children
Party preference: Republican
Web: markgarciaforcongress.com/; Facebook: MarkGarciaForCongress; Twitter: @garciacd16
Loraine Goodwin
Age: 64Hometown: Madera
Occupation: Physician
Education: Medical degree, University of California at San Francisco
Family: No information provided
Party preference: Democrat
Web: www.drgoodwin.info/; Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Dr-Loraine-Goodwin/210773768989640
Johnny Tacherra
Age: 36Hometown: Burrel
Occupation: Dairy farmer
Education: Riverdale Christian Academy
Family: Wife Lisa Marie; four children
Party preference: Republican
Web: www.johnnyforcongress.com/; Facebook: tacherraforcongress; Twitter: @Vote4Tacherra
Brian Whelan
Age: 28Hometown: Fresno
Occupation: Farmer, attorney
Education: University of California at Berkeley, Rutgers University Law School
Family: No information provided
Party preference: Republican
Web: www.whelanforcongress.com/; Facebook: WhelanForCongress; Twitter: @/BrianDWhelan
Search profiles of Valley candidates
The reporter can be reached at (559) 441-6320, jellis@fresnobee.com or @johnellis24 on Twitter.
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