Census figures show Valley pain

Published online on Monday, Sep. 28, 2009

New economic estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau show what most Valley residents already knew: Things were worse in 2008 than they were in 2007. And experts suggest they're even bleaker now.

People earned less money last year, and more of them lived in poverty, according to the Census Bureau's 2008 American Community Survey.

It's a sobering window on the effects of the economic recession that began in late 2007 and continued to take hold across the country in 2008. But economists warn that the current reality has deteriorated further for Valley families.

"It would be remarkable if things were not significantly worse" given the Valley's history of higher unemployment and reliance on agriculture, said VaNee L. Van Vleck, a professor of economics at California State University, Fresno. "This reflects the period before things went south."

The census estimates are based on nationwide surveys and interviews of 3 million households throughout 2007 and 2008.

In Fresno County, the median family income -- the midpoint at which half of families make more and half make less -- fell by nearly $6,500, to $48,558.

And 22.3% of Fresno County's residents were estimated to be living in poverty -- up from 20% in 2007 and third highest in California behind only Imperial County (22.9%) and Merced County (22.5%), and just ahead of Tulare County (21.6%).

Poverty is defined by the federal government based on annual income, with thresholds ranging from $10,991 or less for an individual to $22,025 for a family of four in 2008.

Among families in Fresno County, 17.3% were estimated to be at or below the federal poverty level, up from 15.6% in 2007.

Families headed by women where there is no husband in the home were even worse off, with more than 35% estimated to be living in poverty.

Similar circumstances were reflected in other counties in the central San Joaquin Valley.

The lowest individual poverty rate in the Valley was reported in Kings County at 16%, while the highest median family income estimate was in Madera County at $50,966.

But those figures are hardly bright spots compared to California and the nation. The individual poverty rate was 13.3% in the state and 13.2% in the U.S. Median family incomes were $70,029 statewide and $63,366 nationally.

As unfortunate as the figures for the Valley are, the American Community Survey estimates "capture just the very, very tip of the iceberg" of the recession's economic havoc, said Heidi Shierholz, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, D.C.

That's because the data are outdated, reflecting not only 2008, but a good portion of 2007 before the recession began, Shierholz said.

The nation's average unemployment rate during the period when households were being surveyed was about 5%. Now it's approaching 10% and isn't expected to peak until later this year or early 2010.

"These data capture only about one-tenth of the deterioration we've seen in the labor market," Shierholz said. "It's not capturing anything of what's going on right now."

Because of the lag in collection and reporting of the Census Bureau's information, "the reality now will dwarf what these numbers show," she added. "Eventually, when we get to the 2010 survey data, we'll see a huge jump."

Fresno State's Van Vleck said she doesn't see any indicators of good news on the horizon.

Van Vleck said recent reports indicate that food prices are falling. "That's good news for consumers, but for people who grow and process the food, that means their income is going down," she said.

Rising unemployment in the private sector and payroll reductions in state and local government also are adding to the economic strain in a region where unemployment is typically higher, and income lower, than state and national averages.

"For the most part, [the Valley] is always at the tail end of the boom," Van Vleck said, "and somehow we're usually at the front edge of a decline."