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When Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger recently picked Friant Dam as the spot to sign an $11 billion water bond proposal, the symbolism was clear: One day, a new dam will rise to the east, supplying new water to Valley farms.
Or will it?
Some -- including both fans and foes of a proposed Temperance Flat dam -- doubt the long-envisioned project will ever get a share of the $3 billion set aside in the bond for storage.
Just taking the first step is problematic: State voters must approve the bond a year from now. But even if they do, Temperance Flat faces many hurdles, as do the two other proposed dams that could be financed through the recent water legislation.
Under the bill, water users must commit to covering a major share of construction costs, which for Temperance totals an estimated $3.4 billion. And an unelected water commission must decide the dams provide "public benefits," such as improved flood control and new water to aid fish and wildlife.
"I think there is a slim chance [Temperance Flat] will be built," said Jonas Minton, water policy adviser for the Planning and Conservation League, an environmental group that opposes dams and the bond.
Minton, a former deputy director of the California Department of Water Resources, says users will never step up to pay their share of the project because the water will be too expensive.
He first raised doubts about the dam a couple of weeks ago at an agribusiness conference in Fresno. His analysis, along with criticism from state Sen. Jeff Denham, R-Atwater, has reverberated in farm country. Some growers who support the dam also think the cost-sharing provisions of the bill make the dam impractical.
They would prefer a bond that simply sets money aside for the project.
In an e-mail to its 2,000 members, a farm-water advocacy group called Families Protecting the Valley cautioned that "once this orgy of backslapping, congratulatory news conferences, and ego-inflating posturing has run its course, FPV suggests you read and take a hard look at this bond before deciding how you will vote."
The group's board members include prominent Valley farmers and businessmen Denis Prosperi, Robert Smittcamp and Kole Upton.
Other farm groups remain in support of the bond, including Western Growers Association and Westlands Water District. But if the criticism spreads, it could pose challenges for bond supporters who are counting on Valley votes to pass the measure, which faces likely opposition from some unions, environmental groups and fiscal conservatives.
But many dam supporters say the criticism is unwarranted.
"I believed and still believe that Temperance Flat [dam] will be very competitive," said Assembly Member Juan Arambula, I-Fresno, who voted for the bill. He said the Planning and Conservation League is spreading confusion because "the more they can undercut support for the bond, the more it serves their group's agenda."
In truth, questions surround all three dam proposals -- and no one can guarantee funding for any of them.
The most influential decision-maker is a commission that today has no members.
If the bond passes, the moribund California Water Commission will instantly get new life as the distributor of $3 billion for storage, including dams and underground water banking.
The nine-member, governor-appointed commission has been around for decades and taken on various roles, including advising the state Department of Water Resources on the State Water Project, the largest state-built water system in the United States.
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